Bad draw for Murray

Well, we hoped Andy Murray would avoid a US Open semi-final meeting with Rafa Nadal but the draw has not been kind to the new world number two.

As soon as the names came out of the hat, the odds on Murray changed for me. I would now say Nadal is second favourite, behind Roger Federer. I don't think you can put Murray as second favourite when you know that he has to overcome that pair to lift the trophy.

Murray's first round opponent Ernests Gulbis shouldn't pose too many problems. Six months ago I would have said Gulbis was a very dangerous draw; he's one of those young talents that started to emerge last year. He made the quarter finals of the French and then took a set off Nadal at Wimbledon, and you always look at him and think 'soon he's going to fulfil his potential'. He's got a big game, he serves well and he can cause problems.

But when Murray played Gulbis at Wimbledon he looked like he had gone backwards mentally. Talent-wise you suspect he could trouble Murray but surely Andy will have too much for him mentally. We saw it at Wimbledon when Gulbis accused Andy of gamesmanship - it's almost like he plays with a chip on his shoulder.

These young guys come through the ranks and expect things to happen, and when it doesn't happen they look for things to blame. Actually the real problems rest with Gulbis himself, and he needs to realise that. I will give him one piece of advice, a war of words will only suit Andy so Ernests would be wise to shut up.
DEL POTRO

Looking ahead in the draw, I think it's ironic that Murray sits in the same half as Juan Del Potro. I can't separate those two, along with Novak Djokovic, and I know Andy beat Del Potro in Montreal but I've seen enough in the Argentine in the past six months to believe he is a danger to anybody. I would see Murray/Del Potro as 50-50.

Del Potro did tire in Montreal but he had just won in Washington the week before, and Washington is the hardest conditions you can play in. I wouldn't read too much into his physical state, I would look at his game and think that he has enough in his locker to believe he can beat Murray.

Ahead of that are a couple of intriguing encounters for Murray, there's Ivo Karlovic in round three - although out of the top eight players Murray is the one who always seems to deal best with the big Croat.

Then in round four he potentially faces Stanislas Wawrinka. He could definitely cause an upset if he gets there, although with Wawrinka the question is always whether he'll slip up in the earlier rounds.

FEDERER

The champion can get Lleyton Hewitt in round three, which instantly looks like a tantalising prospect purely because the Australian is a former world number one. But when you look at their head-to-heads Federer has won something like the last nine meetings, the game has changed so much now and the Swiss master just will not be going out in round three.

Looking further ahead there is Nikolay Davydenko, yet another dangerous looking opponent but yet another guy that Federer loves to play. I'm 99 percent sure he has never lost to Davydenko.

The draw has been kind to Federer, he's avoided Del Potro, he's avoided Tsonga, out of the seeds I think he would have wanted to play Davydenko.

NADAL

What an unbelievable draw for Rafa Nadal, getting paired with Richard Gasquet. At his best Gasquet is a joy to watch but he is just feeling his way back into action after his off-court ordeal.

Gasquet lost in the qualifiers at Newhaven a couple of weeks ago, this is only his second tournament back and he has already stated that he just wants to go to the US Open and win one match. What a match to have to win! I don't see him getting his wish but it's great to see him playing again, it was right that he returns to the tour.

It's also great to have Rafa back and I was impressed with what I saw at Cincinnati. He's got his fitness back and, like Federer, he can work his way through to the last 16 pretty comfortably and once he gets a few matches under his belt he'll feel confident he can win the tournament.

I don't think the Spaniard's knee is a problem now, people always make a big thing of it - they did before the Australian Open but I'm pretty sure he moved quite well at that tournament! He's had a sensible long-term lay-off and I think he will now play for as long as he wants to play.

I've always said that when Nadal ends up dropping down the rankings, it won't be due to injury, it will be because he's lost that motivation to keep working as hard as he does.

THE WINNER...

Rafa goes in as second favourite for me, but Federer's the favourite. We questioned how much motivation he would have for Cincinnati after winning a record number of Grand Slams and seeing his wife give birth, but he looks more than motivated and he has to be favourite.

Never rule out Andy Roddick, the way he played at Wimbledon was sensational but he will have to beat three of the top guys to lift the trophy. I don't see that happening and I would make Del Potro a more likely bet as an outside chance.

However, if Murray does repeat his efforts of last year by getting to the final again, I'll be telling him to get "You'll Never Walk Alone" on his Ipod this time, without a shadow of a doubt. Forget all this Scottish music!